In light of the rising political and economic uncertainty in Europe, we aim to provide a basic understanding of the impact of economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty on a set of macroeconomic variables such as production, consumption and investment. In this paper, we apply a...

Recent events such as the financial and sovereign debt crisis have triggered an increase in European Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU). We use a TVP-FAVAR model with hierarchical priors on the hyperparameters to investigate the effect of EPU on a wide range of macroeconomic variables for eleven...

We study the time-varying impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the US Economy by using a VAR with time-varying coefficients. The coefficients are allowed to evolve gradually over time which allows us to discover structural changes without imposing them a priori. We find three different...

In light of the rising political and economic uncertainty in Europe, we aim to provide a basic understanding of the impact of economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty on a set of macroeconomic variables such as production, consumption and investment. In this paper, we apply a...

In January 2013 the macroeconomic development was determined by the influence of the factors formed in the second half of the previous year. The domestic market was considerably affected by both the drop in the industrial production by 0.8% versus last January and the abrupt slowdown of the...

This paper examines how global uncertainty and domestic shocks (domestic uncertainty) affect macroeconomic performance, such as household consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, and goods and services exports, in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. The Global...

In September 2014, the trend of slowdown of economic dynamics by the baseline types of economic activities stopped. Growth in industrial output, manufacturing and mining amounted to 2.8%, 3.6% and 2.4%, respectively, as compared to September 2013. However, the situation is complicated by the...

We characterize the macroeconomics performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four different hypotheses for the mild effects on inflation and economic...

In this paper we show that findings of an apparently instable popularity function of U.S. presidents, as reported in the previous literature, are likely the consequence of the common use of linear estimation techniques. Employing Penalized Spline Smoothing in the context of Additive Mixed Models...

This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales...