This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We find that IMF programs significantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5 to 2 percentage points. These results cannot be attributed to...

This paper analyses the history and effectiveness of the two major mechanisms of resolution of balance of payments crisis. It argues that IMF lending has met its counter-cyclical objectives through history and has been improving in terms of providing adequate lending facilities as well as...

This paper looks at whether the tendency of some governments to borrow short term is reinforced by financial support from the International Monetary Fund. I first present a model of sovereign debt issuance at various maturities featuring endogenous liquidity crises and maturity mismatches due to...

In the wake of the global crisis the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its exposure to low-and middle-income countries and boosted the overhaul of its lending approach to enhance its role in preventing crises. This paper tests whether IMF lending has targeted countries most affected by...

This paper analyzes the role played by the IMF in eight recent sovereign debt restructurings from a comparative perspective: Argentina (2001-2005), the Dominican Republic (2004-2005), Ecuador (1999-2000), Pakistan (1998-2001), the Russian Federation (1998-2001), Serbia (2000-2004), Ukraine...

Since their inception at the end of the Second World War, the sister organizations of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have aimed to consistently speak with one voice vis-agrave;-vis their member governments. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that they often do not...

Quarterly evidence on participation in IMF programs for the period 1974-2003 is examined statistically using the techniques of hazard analysis and error-correction estimation. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested, and the results support a quot;revolving doorquot; explanation of...

Could a high-access, quick-disbursing quot;insurance facilityquot; in the IMF help to reduce the incidence of sharp interruptions in capital flows (quot;sudden stopsquot;)? We contribute to the debate around this question by analyzing the impact of conventional IMF-supported programs on the...

To better fulfill its crisis-prevention mandate, IMF surveillance needs to provide stronger incentives for countries to follow good policies and for markets to avoid boom-bust cycles in capital flows. To this end, surveillance should culminate in a summary public assessment of the quality of a...