In this paper, we argue that there is no compelling reason for restricting the class of multivariate models considered for macroeconomic forecasting to VARs given the recent advances in VARMA modelling methodology and improvements in computing power. To support this claim, we use real...

We examine the response of real exchange rates to shocks in real exchange rate determinants, a monetary policy shock, and a fiscal policy shock in 30 countries over the period 1970-2008. The country set is divided into 4 groups - European, developed-country, Asian developing-country, and non...

This paper establishes vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis by efficiently identifying and simultaneously estimating the model parameters using full information maximum likelihood. The monetary literature is largely dominated by vector...

In this paper we study two methodologies which identify and specify canonical form VARMA models. The two methodologies are: (i) an extension of the scalar component methodology which specifies canonical VARMA models by identifying scalar components through canonical correlations analysis and...

This paper proposes an extension to scalar component methodology for the identification and estimation of VARMA models. The complete methodology determines the exact positions of all free parameters in any VARMA model with a predetermined embedded scalar component structure. This leads to an...

This paper builds a structural VARMA (SVARMA) model for investigating Canadian monetary policy. Despite the support for a VARMA model for monetary policy analysis, the traditional VAR and SVAR models have predominantly been used in the literature mainly due to difficulties associated with the...

Nelson and Startz (Econometrica, 58, 1990), Maddala and Jong (Econometrica, 60, 1992) and Wolgrom (Econometrica, 69, 2001) have shown that the density of the two-stage least squares estimator may be bimodal in a just identified structural equation. This paper further investigates the conditions...