Households systematically overvalue or undervalue their houses. We compute house value misperception as the difference between self-reported and market house values. Misperception is sizable, countercyclical, and persistent. We find that a 1 percent increase in house overvaluation results, on...

Households systematically overvalue or undervalue their houses. We compute house value misperception as the difference between self-reported and market house values. Misperception is sizable, countercyclical, and persistent. We find that a 1 percent increase in house overvaluation results, on...

Systemic risk must include the housing market, though economists have not generally focused on it. We begin construction of an agent-based model of the housing market with individual data from Washington, DC. Twenty years of success with agent-based models of mortgage prepayments give us hope...

This paper studies household beliefs during the recent US housing boom. To characterize the heterogeneity in households' views about housing and the economy, we perform a cluster analysis on survey responses at different stages of the boom. The estimation always finds a small cluster of...

In this paper, I study the recent swing in the new home sales price in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features sector-specific total factor productivity (TFP) shocks, agents who concern about model uncertainty (in the Knightian sense), indivisible labor in households'...

We generalize the classic Grossman and Laroque (1990) (GL) model of optimal portfolio choice with housing and transaction costs by introducing predictability in house prices. As in the GL model, agents only move to more expensive (cheaper) houses when their wealth-to-housing ratios reach an...

Following the global financial crisis, many countries have introduced or tightened macroprudential policies. Using an agentbased model (ABM), this paper seeks to measure the impact on house price cycles of two distinct borrower-based macroprudential instruments, namely loan-to-income and...

This paper develops and estimates a model to explain the behaviour of house prices in the United States. The main finding is that over 70% of the increase in house prices relative to trend during the increase of house prices in the United States from 1995 to 2006 can be explained by a pricing...

What is Housing Price to Income Ratio (HPIR) in the Indian context?It is the amount that can be spent by an individual or a household on purchase of new property (mainly house/residence) with the annual savings post taxes. For simple calculations it is assumed is that a. 10% of the income goes...

This paper develops an agent-based model of the UK housing market to study the impact of macroprudential policies on key housing market indicators. This approach enables us to tackle the heterogeneity in this market by modelling the individual behaviour and interactions of first-time buyers,...