Are housing prices predictable? If so, do households take into account it when making their portfolio choices? We document the existence of housing returns predictability in the US at the aggregate and regional level. We study a model, in which housing prices are predictable and adjustment costs...

We generalize the classic Grossman and Laroque (1990) (GL) model of optimal portfolio choice with housing and transaction costs by introducing predictability in house prices. As in the GL model, agents only move to more expensive (cheaper) houses when their wealth-to-housing ratios reach an...

Are housing returns predictable? If so, do households take them into account when making their housing consumption and portfolio decisions? We document the existence of housing return predictability in the U.S. at the aggregate, census region, and state level. We study a portfolio choice model...

This paper presents the first attempt to incorporate home-ownership and house price dynamics in a model of entrepreneurial choice. Due to prospects of limits on the amount of borrowing, housing stock has a collateral value component, beyond the value derived from the direct consumption of...

How does home ownership affect new business creation? We develop a model of career choice in the presence of liquidity constraints in which shocks to the value of real estate affect the propensity of potential entrepreneurs to borrow against the value of their property. Using a large US...

This paper examines the house price dynamics for thirteen European countries. A Markov-switching error correction model is estimated on house price returns at the country level, with deviations between house prices and fundamentals feeding into the short-run dynamics. The system is assumed to be...