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Campbell and Shiller average 10 years of real S&P 500 earnings to construct its Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE, which they then use to forecast its future 10-year returns. In essence, Campbell and Shiller kill two birds with one large stone - they use the 10-year average to reduce noise...
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Bayesian investor. We develop a constrained parameter learning approach for sequential estimation allowing for belief revisions …
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about estimation risk in FFMs in high dimensions. We investigate whether recent linear and non-linear shrinkage methods help … to reduce the estimation risk in the asset return covariance matrix. Our findings indicate that modest improvements are …We investigate covariance matrix estimation in vast-dimensional spaces of 1,500 up to 2,000 stocks using fundamental …
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