Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....

This paper investigates to what extent the fundamentals of the real economy are reflected in the stock prices of Japan. A Markov switching VAR model with switching variances is used to test the structural identification scheme. Identification of fundamental and nonfundamental shocks is shown to...

Introduction -- Money, Bonds and Economic Activity: Money, Bonds and Interest Rates -- Term Structure of Interest Rates -- The Credit Market and Economic Activity: Theories on Credit Market, Credit Risk and Economic Activity -- Empirical Tests on Credit Market and Economic Activity -- The Stock...

This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...