We assess the effectiveness of the forward guidance undertaken by European Central Bank using a standard medium-scale DSGE model à la Smets and Wouters (2007). Exploiting data on expectations from surveys, we show that incorporating expectations should be crucial in performance evaluation of...

Recently introduced measure for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) seems to have a role to play in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity both for the euro area and the UK economies in the monthly data from 1997-2016. Inclusion of EPU measures either for the US, UK...

Das Themenspektrum der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung ist breit gefächert. Nicht nur die Wirtschaftstheorie, sondern auch die Ökonometrie und Wirtschaftsstatistik spielen eine zentrale Rolle. Die Festschrift für Professor Ullrich Heilemann versammelt dazu 30 Fachaufsätze anerkannter...

By using the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Autoregressive Markov Switching models, this paper provides an effective tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European Union. This information is useful for policy makers...