Aiyar, Shekhar S.; Malacrino, Davide; Mohommad, Adil; … - 2022
While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020 … demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic …-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals …