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Commodity price shocks and the business cycle : structural evidence for the US
Gubler, Matthias; Hertweck, Matthias S. - 2011 - This version: March 28, 2011
particular, we find that commodity price shocks explain a large share of cyclical movements in inflation. Neutral technology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009008065
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Macroeconomic dynamics and inflation regimes in the US : results from threshold vector autoregressions
Mandler, Martin - 2010
model in which endogenous regime switches are triggered by the inflation rate. The model separates a high from a low … inflation regime with both regimes being strongly persistent. Generalized impulse response functions highlight important across …-regime differences in the responses of the economy to monetary policy and inflation shocks. Simulating both regimes with individual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003950614
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Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US
Albonico, Alice; Tirelli, Patrizio; Paccagnini, Alessia - 2016
This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434680
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Counteracting unemployment in crises : non-linear effects of short-time work policy
Gehrke, Britta; Hochmuth, Brigitte - 2017
Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty in order to prevent layoffs and stabilize employment. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession, for example. This paper shows that the effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011718992
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Counteracting unemployment in crises : non-linear effects of short-time work policy
Gehrke, Britta; Hochmuth, Brigitte - 2018
Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty to prevent layoffs. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession. This paper shows that the effects of short-time work are strongly time dependent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011845664
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Falling Long-term Inflation Expectations?
Neri, Stefano - 2022
Long-term inflation expectations in the euro area reached historically low levels at the end of 2019, suggesting a … possible de-anchoring from the European Central Bank’s “below, but close to, 2 per cent” inflation aim. The decline in long …-term inflation expectations exerted a downward pressure on inflation between 2014 and 2016, and in 2019. Counterfactual simulations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307766
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The influence of the business cycle on mortality
Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. (contributor);  … - 2008
We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality using Bayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality of mortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changes for all individual age...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770803
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Lee-Carter and the macroeconomy
Hanewald, Katja - 2009
Using data for six OECD countries, this paper studies the effect of macroeconomic conditions on the mortality index kt in the well-known Lee-Carter model. Significant correlations are found with real GDP growth rates in Australia, Canada, and the United States, and with unemployment rate changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003796260
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Investigating the U.S. oil-macroeconomy nexus using rolling impulse responses
Gronwald, Marc - 2009
This paper is concerned with the apparent change in the U.S. oil price-macroeconomy relationship. It is investigated to what extent this change can be accounted for by the large oil price surges witnessed in the 1970s. The innovative approach of rolling impulse responses is applied and both the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003857164
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Common and country specific economic uncertainty
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2015
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276