This paper employs stochastic simulations of the New Area-Wide Model - microfounded open-economy model developed at the ECB - to investigate the consequences of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the evolution of risks to price stability in the euro area during the recent...

We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies—forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus—in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming...

The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...

We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies - forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus - in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming...

We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies - forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus - in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming...

The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...

This paper assesses the macroeconomic consequences of a prolonged period of low and falling inflation when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates, the private sector is indebted in nominal terms (debt deflation mechanism) and nominal...

Issues of inflation measurement are fundamental to the conduct of monetary policy. Price indices form the foundation of central bank policy frameworks around the world. They serve as guides to decision-making, as well as providing the primary mechanism for holding independent policymakers...

This paper studies the state-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks. It shows that a canonical sticky-price model with real rigidity in the form of firm-specific factors can generate substantial state-dependence in the effects of monetary policy shocks. Factor specificity introduces a...