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Recently introduced measure for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) seems to have a role to play in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity both for the euro area and the UK economies in the monthly data from 1997-2016. Inclusion of EPU measures either for the US, UK...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962828
This paper provides evidence regarding gains to agricultural market liberalization in China. We empirically identify the different effects that incentive reforms and gradual market liberalization have on China's agricultural economy during its transition period. We find that average gains within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014109448
This paper combines different strands of the productivity literature to investigate the effect of idiosyncratic (firm-level) policy distortions on aggregate outcomes. On the one hand, a growing body of empirical research has been relating cross-country differences in key economic outcomes, such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003920110
This chapter demonstrates the usefulness of the GVAR modelling framework as a tool for scenario-based forecasting and counterfactual analysis. Working with the GVAR model developed by Greenwood-Nimmo, Nguyen and Shin (2010, J. Appl. Econometrics), we first show how probabilistic forecasting can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108754
Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012202358
We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012167481
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348182
For about three decades, the Japanese economy suffered a prolonged phase of economic stagnation but may have started, in late 2019, to emerge from this state with the implementation of Abenomics in late 2012 or early 2013. Abenomics consisted of “three arrows”, namely aggressive monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260125
The Chinese economy upheld a frail recovery in 2022 under the triple superposition of contraction of demand, disruption in supply, and weakening expectations, aggravated by unanticipated adverse shocks in the midst of global turmoil. Over the year, rising income uncertainty set off by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014288667
This paper analyzes the impact of global financial and economic crisis on the process of system transformation in China. First, it details the direct impact of global growth on macroeconomic development and its indirect impact on economic transformation. Second, it analyzes the direct impact of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003824121