We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...

Sharp changes in consumer expenditure may bias inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using public data from debit card transactions, I quantify these changes in consumer spending, update CPI basket weights and construct an alternative price index to measure the effect of the COVID-induced...

COVID-19 changed consumers' spending patterns, making the CPI weights suddenly obsolete. In most regions, adjusting the CPI weights to account for the changes in spending patterns increases the estimate of inflation over the early months of the pandemic. Under-weighting of rising food prices and...

The paper evaluates the impact of the EU Eastern enlargement 2004 on the economic performance of border regions located at the frontier to the new member states in the East. These regions were assumed to be particularly affected by the enlargement because of their geographic proximity to the new...

This paper evaluates the effect of the French enterprise zone program on residents of these deprived neighborhoods. A second contribution is the evaluation of the composition effects in the zones and of externalities on the neighbors of the enterprise zones. The third contribution is the...

We aim to understand the impact of nation-wide structural policies such as product market regulation and employment protection legislation and that of macroeconomic factors such as trade exposure, inflation and the level of government debt on the economic growth of regions in the OECD. In...

We estimate the direct and spillover effects of a large-scale early childhood intervention on the educational attainment of over 2,000 disadvantaged children in the United States. We show that failing to account for spillover effects results in a severe underestimation of the impact. The...

This paper studies the economic costs of conflicts at the country and ethnic group settlement level with light output data as measured by orbital satellites and conflict data spatially mapped to latitude and longitude coordinates. Using a worldwide dataset of 7,704 individual ethnic group...

In 2007 the Italian central government started a program by transferring funds to regional governments to develop both private and public early childcare services. Exploiting the different timing of program implementation across regions, we evaluate its effectiveness in boosting the public...

Natural disasters bring tremendous destruction to small island economies in the South Pacific region. Foreign development aid, as an important source of green finance in the region, has the fundamental purpose of reducing natural disasters' effect on the small island economies. With country...