We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy....

This paper analyzes the channels through which financial crises exert long-term negative effects on output. Recent models suggest that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing investments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a gap between pre-crisis trend and actual GDP. This...

The DSGE models are based on hypotheses that have the effect of excluding the possibility of severe financial and economic crises with the consequent policy implications going in the laissez-faire direction. The hypothesized unique and stable equilibrium in combination with rational expectations...

Commercial banks across the world have been implementing the Basel III accord, which is the most important international response to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Particularly, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) introduced by the Basel III accord is the first global standard for banking...

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of changes in loan-to-value limits using an approach that involves the cross-sectional loan-to-value distribution and does not require that a limit is actually in place. We show that the effects are asymmetric and non-linear as tighter limits constrain a...

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...

Der durch den russischen Überfall ausgelöste Krieg in der Ukraine bringt erhebliche Belastungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft mit sich. Auf Basis verschiedener laufender Befragungen durch das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft werden die verschiedenen Auswirkungen vermessen. Rund drei Viertel...

The persistently low and (partly) negative output growth in Germany in 2019 evoked memories of the recent global economic crisis and, by this, sparked debates about measures to counter the growing number of unemployed, for example changing the generosity of unemployment benefits (UB) and...

This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...