This paper presents an option positioning that allows us to infer forward variances from option portfolios. The forward variances we construct from equity index options help to predict (i) growth in measures of real economic activity, (ii) Treasury bill returns, (iii) stock market returns, and...

We provide evidence concerning the use of historical cost (HCA) versus mark-to-market (MTM) accounting in regulating financial institutions. Accounting rules, through their interactions with capital regulations, alter financial institutions' trading behavior. The insurance industry provides a...

We provide evidence concerning the use of historical cost (HCA) versus mark-to-market (MTM) accounting in regulating financial institutions. Accounting rules, through their interactions with capital regulations, alter financial institutions' trading behavior. The insurance industry provides a...

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...

In the U.S., over 1873-2014, an increase in bank credit is associated with a lower risk of a financial crisis in the near future. Bank credit expansion predicts lower excess returns and volatility for the aggregate stock market, and this predictive relation varies in the cross-section and is...

This paper suggests using portfolio management methods in policy planning models as a practical tool for determining optimal policy under model parameter uncertainty. We suggest that in addition to calculating the standard policy return estimates, policy options should also be analyzed from the...

The eurozone has a single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions measured by either real short-term interest rates or Taylor rule residuals varied substantially across countries in the period from 2003-2010. We use this cross-country variation in the (local) tightness...

The eurozone has a single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions measured by real short-term interest rates varied substantially across countries in the period 2003 - 2010. We use this cross-country variation in the (local) tightness of monetary policy to examine its...

This paper estimates the effect of capital taxation on portfolio composition and savings using quasi-experimental variation generated by the Dutch 2001 capital tax reform. The reform drove a wedge between the taxation of housing and financial wealth and in addition affected the after-tax return...

The eurozone has a single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions measured by real short-term interest rates varied substantially across countries in the period 2003-2010. We use this cross-country variation in the (local) tightness of monetary policy to examine its...