This paper applies a recently developed method (Inoue and Rossi, 2021) to estimate functional inflation expectations and ex-ante real interest rate shocks, and then examines their macroeconomic effects in the context of a Functional Vector Autoregressive model with exogenous variables...

This paper examines the impact of public sector borrowings on prices, interest rates, and output in Nigeria. It utilized a Vector Autoregressive framework, the Granger causality test, impulse response, and variance decomposition of the various innovations to study the impact. It found that shock...

Central banks often face tradeoffs in how their monetary policy decisions impact economic activity (including employment), inflation and the price level. This paper assesses how these tradeoffs have evolved over time and varied across countries, with a focus on understanding the post-pandemic...

As the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affects the financial markets, a better understanding of the lending dynamics of a successful marketplace is necessary under the conditions of financial distress. Using the loan book database of Mintos (Latvia) and employing logit regression method, we provide...

In the context of debate around Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rates and negative interest rates as a monetary policy option this study has a) critically discussed the policy instruments available in the toolbox when the monetary policy is at ZLB, b) has analysed the notion and...

This paper is prepared with an intention to examine the impact of major macroeconomic variables which includes real interest rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment inflows, export and import over the exchange rate of the countries who are the member of...

We extract aggregate demand and supply shocks for the US economy from real-time survey data on inflation and real GDP growth using a novel identification scheme. Our approach exploits non-Gaussian features of macroeconomic forecast revisions and imposes minimal theoretical assumptions. After...

A surge in COVID-19 incidence in early April has shown that the world pandemic has not yet passed its peak. Morningstar and Fitch rating agencies forecast a reduction in global GDP in 2020 by 1.4% and 1.9%, respectively, while the Chinese economy will be the one to be hardest hit by the...

The government proposes to increase VAT from 18% to 20% from January 2019. Main objective is to fund the budget as stated in the Presidential May 2018 Decree. According to our calculations, the rate increase will lead to a decrease in GDP, consumption, investments, exports and imports compared...

We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest...