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Inflation, perception of economic uncertainty and COVID-19 : evidence from Central Bank communication
Silva, Pierre Hítalo Nascimento; Araujo, Jevuks Matheus de - In: Central Bank review / Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey 23 (2023) 1, pp. 1-13
need to correct the estimation of indicators of economic uncertainty. The indicators were constructed from textual data … Pandemic) in its word list. Initial results show that there is a significant effect of COVID-19 on the estimation of the … extreme events. Moreover, failing to take conjunctural issues into account throughout the estimation process can result in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281527
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Do words affect expectations? : The effect of central banks communication on consumer inflation expectations
Szyszko, Magdalena; Rutkowska, Aleksandra; Kliber, Agata - In: The quarterly review of economics and finance : journal … 86 (2022), pp. 221-229
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249107
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A theory-based method to evaluate the impact of central bank inflation forecasts on private inflation expectations
Vereda, Luciano; Savignon, João; Silva, Tarciso Gouveia da - In: International journal of forecasting 40 (2024) 3, pp. 1069-1084
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014547257
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Managing households' expectations with salient economic policies
D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Weber, Michael - 2019 - This version: August 2019
The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy whose implications are harder to understand by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057290
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Does forward guidance of the ECB matter for the accuracy of private sector inflation forecasts?
Burden, David; Fendel, Ralf; Zimmermann, Lilli - In: Applied economics letters 30 (2023) 9, pp. 1213-1217
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014303844
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Does central bank transparency and communication affect financial and macroeconomic forecasts?
Lustenberger, Thomas; Rossi, Enzo - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011735810
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Does central bank transparency and communication affect financial and macroeconomic forecasts?
Lustenberger, Thomas; Rossi, Enzo - 2018
set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790688
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Household expectations and dissent among policymakers
Grebe, Moritz; Tillmann, Peter - 2022
This paper studies the impact of dissent in the ECB's Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households' inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided with alternative information treatments...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013278899
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Can more public information raise uncertainty? : the international evidence on forward guidance
Ehrmann, Michael; Gaballo, Gaetano; Hoffmann, Peter; … - 2019
Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different types of forward guidance on the sensitivity of bond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997441
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Households' expectations and regional COVID-19 dynamics
Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias - 2023 - 16.01.2023
In this paper we analyze how consumers in Germany updated expectations about inƒaflation in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of regional exposure to COVID-19 cases, the stringency of restriction measures and local unemployment rates on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227597