Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....

I show that a congruent, parsimonious, encompassing model discovered using David Hendry's econometric modelling approach and Autometrics can overcome the many inadequacies of the typical static models of US Treasury returns regressed on macroeconomic announcements. The typical specification...

Prior research has shown that energy sector stock prices are impacted by uncertainty. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has given rise to widespread health and economic-related uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the impact and the timing of the impact of COVID-19 related uncertainty on...

This study examines the role of daily volatility persistence in transmitting information from macro-economy in the volatility of energy markets. In crude oil and natural gas markets, macro-economic factors, such as the VIX, the credit spread and the Baltic exchange dirty index, impact...

We investigate an impact of oil-price shocks on GDP and exchange rate dynamics in resource-heterogeneous economies. We employ a Markov regime-switching version of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to allow for regime shifts, non-linear effects and timevarying parameters of the VAR process....

This study examines how sovereign CDS spreads of Turkey behave in COVID-19 pandemic times by considering that CDS spreads reflect the riskiness, vulnerability, financial stability, and macroeconomic stability of countries and CDS spreads of most of the emerging countries have increased with the...

This paper proposes a causal decomposition framework for settings in which an initial regime randomization influences the timing of a treatment duration. The initial randomization and treatment affect in turn a duration outcome of interest. Our empirical application considers the survival of...

Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price returns with respect to the stance of the U.S. macroeconomy. We find that variables which contain information on current and future economic activity are helpful predictors for...

This paper examines whether macroeconomic instability can influence stock market volatility in a sample of 5 emerging European countries. To account for the effects of fundamentals, modified ARCH/GARCH models are employed. The results are discordant from one country to another, but when a...

Policy impact studies often suffer from endogeneity problems. Consider the case of the ECB Securities Markets Programme: If Eurosystem interventions were triggered by sudden and strong price deteriorations, looking at daily price changes may bias downwards the correlation between yields and the...