This paper studies the causal impacts of vaccine eligibility on social distancing behaviors (risk compensation). We apply a regression discontinuity design around the birth date cutoff of vaccine eligibility using large, high-frequency data from credit card and airline companies as well as...

We utilize the phased rollout of COVID-19 vaccines by age as a natural experiment for testing risk compensation. People may resume face-to-face social activities after vaccination because they perceive lower risk of infection. The national vaccination schedule in South Korea enables us to apply...

Kurzarbeit (KA), Germany's short-time work program, is widely credited with saving jobs and supporting domestic demand during the COVID-19 recession. We quantify the impact by exploiting state-level variation in exposure to the pandemic shock and KA take-up. We construct a shift-share measure of...

Kurzarbeit (KA), Germany’s short-time work program, is widely credited with saving jobs and supporting domestic demand during the COVID-19 recession. We quantify the impact by exploiting state-level variation in exposure to the pandemic shock and KA take-up. We construct a shift-share measure...

The aim of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of risk sharing mechanisms in the euro area and whether a supranational fiscal risk sharing mechanism could insure countries against very severe downturns. Using an unbalanced panel of 15 euro area countries over the period 1979-2010, the...

What does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes This paper estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically...