I examine whether action-based fiscal consolidations are exogenous to contemporaneous GDP growth. Based on the narrative record, these fiscal consolidations had the primary objective to reduce a budget deficit. I find that temperature changes, the GDP growth rate of trading partners, and an...

This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity in the U.S. up to the introduction of vaccines in early 2021. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector...

On March 11, 2011 the strongest recorded in Japan earthquake occurred which triggered a powerful tsunami and caused a nuclear accident in the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Plant Station. The triple 2011 disaster has had immense impacts on people life, health and property, social infrastructure and...

On March 11, 2011, the strongest ever recorded in Japan earthquake occurred which triggered a powerful tsunami and caused a nuclear accident in Fukushima nuclear plant. The latter was a “manmade” disaster having immense impacts on people’s life, health, and property, infrastructure, supply...

This paper uses an empirically grounded stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model to assess the impact of a sudden drop in government expenditures in the Irish economy. We are able to use the model to trace the development of the shock through the economy. We show that a sharp, one period...

A large output gap accompanied by stable inflation close to its target calls for further monetary accommodation, but the zero lower bound on interest rates has robbed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the usual tool for its provision. We examine how public statements of FOMC intentions...

We combine a simple agent-based model of financial markets and a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with bounded rationality via two straightforward channels. The result is a macroeconomic model that allows for the endogenous development of business cycles and stock price bubbles. We show that...

We combine a simple agent-based model of financial markets with a standard New Keynesian macroeconomic model via two straightforward channels. The result is a macroeconomic model that allows for the endogenous development of stock price bubbles. Even with such a simplistic comprehensive model,...

Recent empirical and theoretical literature on the impact of real exchange rate devaluations on economic performance questions the traditional expansionary effect generated within standard Mundell-Fleming models. Contractionary devaluations may arise when firms face maturity or currency...

This paper studies the effects of FOMC forward guidance. We begin by using high frequency identification and direct measures of FOMC private information to show that puzzling responses of private sector forecasts to movements in federal funds futures rates on FOMC announcement days can be...