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Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?
Breuss, Fritz - 2016
story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187
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Forecasting and policy making
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237
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Diminishing Dollar Hegemony : What Wars and Sanctions Failed to Accomplish, COVID-19 Has
Taskinsoy, John - 2020
The United States has turned into an anarchic Hobbesian in part triggered by; weakening dollar's natural pull as the main reserve currency; China's massive foreign reserves; fast rise of the renminbi; the failure attempts to dismantle gold and its readiness to reclaim a monetary role at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837594
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty Shocks : The Role of the Financial Channel
Popp, Aaron - 2016
This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks with an emphasis on the interaction between elevated uncertainty and credit market conditions when the economy is in different regimes (recessions vs. non-recessions). We use a smooth-transition factor-augmented vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003975
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Does central bank transparency and communication affect financial and macroeconomic forecasts?
Lustenberger, Thomas; Rossi, Enzo - 2018
In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790688
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Depression econometrics : a FAVAR model of monetary policy during the great depression
Ahmadi, Pooyan Amir; Ritschl, Albrecht - 2009
The prominent role of monetary policy in the U.S. interwar depression has been conventional wisdom since Friedman and Schwartz [1963]. This paper presents evidence on both the surprise and the systematic components of monetary policy between 1929 and 1933. Doubts surrounding GDP estimates for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003904615
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ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Cheng - 2023
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348182
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Evaluating Macroeconomic Risk Forecasts
Knüppel, Malte - 2016
Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of many institutions. A risk forecast is related to the potential asymmetry of the forecast density. In this work, we investigate how the optimality of such risk forecasts can be tested. We find that the Pearson mode skewness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991040
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(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability
D'Agostino, Antonello - 2006
This paper documents a new stylized fact of the greater macroeconomic stability of the U.S. economy over the last two decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780502
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A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth
Grover, Sean - 2017
Analyzing the performance of the economy in real time is a challenge for those who must forecast macroeconomic variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information contained in economic announcements. In this article, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012967136