Showing 1 - 10 of 18,676
The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011312197
We examine the effect of inflation variability and economic growth using annual historical data on both developing and … inflation variability by the five-year coefficient of variation of inflation, we obtain the following results: (1) For … developing countries, there is significant evidence to suggest that when the rate of inflation exceeds 10% inflation variability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038056
This paper clarifies the conditions under which the state-of-the-art approach to identifying TFP news shocks in Kurmann and Sims (2021, KS) identifies not only news shocks but also surprise shocks. We examine the ability of the KS procedure to recover responses to these shocks from data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357201
This paper presents estimates of the effects of monetary policy shocks on the Swedish economy. A theoretical model of an open economy is used to identify a structural VAR model. The empirical results from the identified VAR model are compared with two less structural approaches for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583125
We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350458
patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709632
We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014314068
This study provides estimates of economic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty for the Greek economy and considers … their time-varying impact on the corresponding macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth and inflation. The authors find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077830
We propose an event-study research design to identify the nature and propagation of large unusual shocks in DSGE models and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a new shock process where the shock loads on wedges...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375147
before and after the Real plan, which stabilized inflation in July 1994. The results show that the interest rate response to … inflation was greater than one-to-one before stabilization and smaller than that afterwards, hence inverting the Taylor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100165