The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. During each of these episodes, annual real per capita global GDP contracted, and this contraction was accompanied by weakening of other key indicators of global economic activity....

We analyze the effect of the geographic expansion of banks across U.S. states on the co-movement of economic activity between states. Exploiting the removal of interstate banking restrictions to construct time-varying instrumental variables at the state-pair level, we find that bilateral banking...

Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible...

I provide evidence that portfolio equity inflows can have expansionary effects on GDP and inflation if not offset by monetary policy. I use a shift-share instrument to estimate equity inflows based on plausibly exogenous timing of inflows into mutual funds with heterogeneous country portfolios....

In addition to the severe health crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic provoked one of the deepest socioeconomic crises in the history of capitalism. Yet, the economic structure of each country and the strength of the welfare state, along with the ability of the diverse governments to cope with the...

The issue of Nonperforming loan is considered as a serious threat towards the banking soundness of a country. Nonperforming loans are those loans which cease to generate principle and interest and create a negative impact on the performance of banks. There are host of factors which effect...

This paper empirically addresses the hypothesis that of the external commodity based sector, Chinese resource demand is the most important driver of emerging market economy business cycles using Brazil as a representative case. Using a structural VAR to examine the effects of Chinese resource...

This paper studies the implications of globalization for the dynamics of macroeconomic variables over the business cycle for a small open trade-dependent economy, such as Korea. We study the impact of globalization through the lens of a structural model. Globalization is modeled as a...

Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines business cycle variables with data from international container trade....