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This paper investigates how stock market returns respond to economic policy uncertainty shocks. Based on the vector autoregression (VAR) analysis of the monthly changes in economic policy uncertainty index in the United States and CRSP value-weighted index from 1985:M2 to 2012:M6, the results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090887
deviation increase in EPU is associated with a 1.11% decrease in risk-adjusted momentum returns. The predictive power of EPU is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852746
We contribute to the growing debate on the relation between macroeconomic risk and stock price momentum. Not only is … exist, winner and loser factor loadings offset nearly completely. Furthermore, the magnitude of macroeconomic risk premia …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974948
This paper examines the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and COVID-19 shock on stock returns. Tests of 16 global stock market indices, using monthly data from January 1990 to August 2021, suggest a negative relation between the stock return and a country’s EPU. Evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813880
Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039605
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011405080
I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516
risk premia may accrue unevenly during the calendar year, and the pattern may be transferred to government bond prices. We … for the predicted component, linking the sources of the phenomenon with macroeconomic risk factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893030
on the state of the economy. I show that a conditional model with investors' beliefs and an uncertainty risk factor is … risk factor retains its incremental explanatory power when compared to other conditional models such as the conditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149939
We outline a systematic approach to incorporate macroeconomic information into firm level forecasting from the perspective of an equity investor. Using a global sample of 198,315 firm-years over the 1998-2010 time period, we find that combining firm level exposures to countries (via geographic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066490