patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …

is derived from policy-makers' preferences about inflation outcomes, we first show that downside risks to price stability … future inflation can provide insurance against the materialisation of such upside risks. …

Long-term inflation expectations in the euro area reached historically low levels at the end of 2019, suggesting a … possible de-anchoring from the European Central Bank’s “below, but close to, 2 per cent” inflation aim. The decline in long …-term inflation expectations exerted a downward pressure on inflation between 2014 and 2016, and in 2019. Counterfactual simulations …

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has … the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on … options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer prices provides us with the full distribution of inflation expectations …

the ECB’s UMP on inflation expectations in the Euro area as inflation expectations play a key role for achieving the … inflation target of below, but close to 2%. Quantifying the impact of UMP is not straightforward, as standard empirical tools … indeed find that UMP leads to a rise in inflation expectations in the short run but that this effect appears to evaporate in …

higher wage flexibility would help ease the impact on real output at the expense of wider fluctuations in inflation. Finally …