We assess the effectiveness of the forward guidance undertaken by European Central Bank using a standard medium-scale DSGE model à la Smets and Wouters (2007). Exploiting data on expectations from surveys, we show that incorporating expectations should be crucial in performance evaluation of...

This paper examines the evolution of consumer uncertainty about unemployment one year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic in European countries. Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we use two alternative methods to directly approximate it. Both approaches are based on...

In early 2020, the rapid spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) quickly developed into a pandemic. This was followed by a sharp global economic downturn that was extraordinary in its speed, reach and scale. Within days of the first reported COVID-19 cases, the ECB daily Composite Indicator of...

In this paper, the Box-Jenkins approach has been used to build the appropriate Autoregressive-Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model to understand the short-term economic impact of coronavirus on India and Indonesia’s economies. The quarterly data for forecasting India and Indonesia's GDP was...

Analyzing the performance of the economy in real time is a challenge for those who must forecast macroeconomic variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information contained in economic announcements. In this article, the...