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This chapter reviews and synthesizes our current understanding of the shocks that drive economic fluctuations. The chapter begins with an illustration of the problem of identifying macroeconomic shocks, followed by an overview of the many recent innovations for identifying shocks. It then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024291
This paper contributes to the policy evaluation literature by developing new strategies to study alternative policy rules. We compare optimal rules to simple rules within canonical monetary policy models. In our context, an optimal rule represents the solution to an intertemporal optimization...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012709439
-sum) tax shocks always affect output and inflation. Tax non-neutralities in the model arise solely through the mechanism …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014066482
South Africa's inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General …. Regime F (active fiscal policy), in contrast, stabilizes debt more quickly but at the cost of higher inflation, as it does …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015125422
The authors solve the IS puzzle for the G7 countries. They find that five of the G7 countries have the expected significant negative relationship between the output gap and the real-rate gap; the time series of the remaining two show material deviation from expected IS-curve behavior. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011917259
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003908173
This paper identifies shocks to the Federal Reserve's inflation target as VAR innovations that make the largest … contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte … inflation, GDP growth and long-term interest rates. Target shocks are estimated to be a vital factor behind the increase in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671941
We investigate the heterogeneity in the effects of monetary policy shocks on the distribution of wages and hours worked, using unique contract-level data from the Czech labor market and identifying monetary policy shocks using a narrative approach based on market suprises in interest rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014533582
This paper applies ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL models to long-term inflation targeting policy mechanisms in the United … States and China to assess the impact of oil price dynamics and asymmetries on inflation expectations in the two countries … changes on inflation expectations, and further provide a theoretical basis for the empirical results. We use data from 2010 to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289383
We propose a two-step approach to estimate multi-dimensional monetary policy shocks and their causal effects requiring only daily financial market data and policy events. First, we combine a heteroscedasticity-based identification scheme with recursive zero restrictions along the term structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015052047