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soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to …Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and … developments, the risk of stagflation-a combination of high inflation and sluggish growth-has risen. The recovery from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256317
We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the … near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR …) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584054
markets now expect is not enough to reduce inflation to targets, experience from previous global recessions suggests that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013383374
We investigate an impact of oil-price shocks on GDP and exchange rate dynamics in resource-heterogeneous economies. We employ a Markov regime-switching version of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to allow for regime shifts, non-linear effects and timevarying parameters of the VAR process....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013369064
This paper examines the impact of different types of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy, using a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. The results indicate that when examining the effects of oil price shocks, it is important to account for the interaction between the oil market and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081472
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237
The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012613426
near-term economic outlook, characterised by persistently low nominal interest rates and inflation, and in a lasting low …-real-interest-rate world. Our findings suggest that, if unaddressed, the lower bound can have very substantial costs in terms of worsened …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012137689
near-term economic outlook, characterised by persistently low nominal interest rates and inflation, and in a lasting low …-real-interest-rate world. Our findings suggest that, if unaddressed, the lower bound can have very substantial costs in terms of worsened …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149021
The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012594057