We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate US market value of 4 to 11 percent,...

The initial entry of FDI in India can be loosely considered from the time of establishment of East India Company of Britain during the colonial era in the 17th century due to the British merchants approaching the Mughal Emperor with the proposal of establishing a factory in Surat city of India....

On May 5, 2020, the U.S. Trade Representative announced plans to negotiate a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom. We use GTAP to model the economic impacts of this free trade agreement, exclusively focusing on the bilateral tariff elimination. We find that a standard GTAP model leads to...

The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been staggering, with over 4.3 million confirmed cases and over 290,000 deaths reported worldwide. In addition to the public health crisis, the pandemic has caused significant economic disruption, leading to fears of a global recession. The...

India has witnessed a tremendous economic growth, as measured by GDP, over the past 10 years. Many experts have pointed out that FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) has been one of the major factors taking India to this growth level. Foreign investment in India has increased continuously since...

Since time of globalization, discussion on de-globalization started. COVID-19 accelerated de-globalization. This paper argues that absolute de-globalization is difficult choice for any country. Rather countries with similar economic conditions or political ideologies, will unite and make their...

This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment...

The Philippines has been more cautious in its policy towards free trade agreements (FTAs) than other ASEAN member states, having signed, so far, only one bilateral agreement with Japan in addition to the various ASEAN+1 agreements. While the Government is expected to progressively reduce...

We assess the behavior of real effective exchange rates (REERs) of members of the CEMAC zone with respect to their long-term equilibrium paths. A reduced form of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model is estimated and associated misalignments are derived for the period 1980 to...