Der durch den russischen Überfall ausgelöste Krieg in der Ukraine bringt erhebliche Belastungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft mit sich. Auf Basis verschiedener laufender Befragungen durch das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft werden die verschiedenen Auswirkungen vermessen. Rund drei Viertel...

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...

We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy....

During the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, the price of crude oil dropped markedly from about $140 per barrel in June 2008 to about $40 in early 2009. As Quantitative Easing allowed the U.S. economy to stabilize and return to slow growth, oil prices increased and averaged about $100 during...

The paper formulates the modeling of unconventional monetary policy and critically evaluates its effectiveness to address the Global Financial Crisis. We begin with certain principles guiding general scientific modeling and focus on Milton Friedman's 1968 Presidential Address that delineates the...

With the advent of big data in economics machine learning algorithms become more and more appealing to economists. Despite some attempts of establishing artificial neural networks in in the early 1990s, only little is known about their ability of estimating causal effects in policy evaluation....

The assessment of the health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic requires the consideration of mobility networks. To this aim, we propose to augment spatio-temporal point process models with mobility network covariates. We show how the resulting model can be employed to predict contagion patterns...

In this paper, we exploit CDS quotes for contracts denominated in different currencies and with different default clauses to estimate the risk of a breakup of the Eurozone and the propagation of breakup and default risks. In a period including the large Covid-19 shock, we find that the risk of a...

This paper focuses on the spatial variation in the uptake of social security benefits following a large and detrimental exogenous shock. Specifically, we focus on the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We construct a two-period panel of 66 Territorial...

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a constant threat in 2022 and is important to design appropriate vaccination campaigns to face next pandemic impacts driven by new variants. This study develops a Machine Learning experiment that shows, between countries, a rapid reduction...