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Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic “indicators”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092865
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009124680
; factor ; federal reserve bank ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; monetary policy ; parameter estimation error ; proxy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130538
The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011312197
We introduce a simple nonparametric approach to compute impulse response functions. We first search for clusters of recurrent patterns of observations resembling two sets of given initial conditions, one of which contains the impact effect of the structural shock of interest. Then, to trace out...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216683
uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with … particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014052483
uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with … particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error …). -- block bootstrap ; forecasting ; recursive estimation scheme ; rolling estimation scheme ; model misspecification ; nonlinear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130740
distribution. The conventional method of analysis is regression of summary inequality indices on variables such as the unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011403817
This is the first paper that econometrically estimates the impact of rising Bioenergy production on global CO2 emissions. We apply a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach to time series from 1961 to 2009 with annual observation for the world biofuel production and global CO2...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011285425
We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are … unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast. Growth vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and … unemployment are positively correlated, with tighter financial conditions corresponding to higher forecasted unemployment and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012167481