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explores implications for growth, innovation, inflation, financial markets, fiscal policy, and several socio-economic outcomes …
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We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545677
This study examines the impact of domestic and foreign shocks on the real and financial sector of BRIC countries. For this purpose, we use a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model over the extended period of 1997 to 2016. We conclude that domestic policy shocks have a more substantial...
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tightened further. Global growth has been moving in the opposite direction: it has declined sharply since the beginning of the … developments, the risk of stagflation-a combination of high inflation and sluggish growth-has risen. The recovery from the … expectations, elevated financial vulnerabilities, and weakening growth fundamentals. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256317
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP … levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and …
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