Tax administrations use machine learning to predict risk scores as a basis for selecting individual taxpayers for audit. Audits detect noncompliance immediately, but may also alter future filing behavior. This analysis is the first to estimate compliance effects of audits among high-risk wage...

In this report, we combine theory and empirical estimates for how labor earnings respond to changes in tax rates and unearned income. We use lottery winnings to obtain variation in unearned income and tax reforms to obtain variation in the net of tax rate. Combining this information with...