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demand and overturns their expectations, generating a bust. This emphasizes a novel role for imperfect common knowledge …
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We propose an imperfect information model for the expectations of macroeconomic forecasters that explains differences …
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We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: 1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the very long run; 2) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...
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We provide a new theory of expectations-driven business cycles in which consumers' learning from prices dramatically …
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