Evans, Charles L.; Liu, Chin Te; Pham-Kanter, Genevieve - In: Economic Perspectives (2002) Q III, pp. 26-43
The initial release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in early 2001 pointed to the very real possibility that the U.S. economy was teetering on the brink of recession. This article quantifies the statistical ability of the CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic...
