Showing 1 - 10 of 1,374
This paper studies the role of the real money gap - the deviation of real money balance from its long-run equilibrium level - for predicting inflation in India. Using quarterly data on manufacturing inflation from 1982 to 2007, we find that the real money gap is a significant predictor of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014217095
energy demand analysis and forecasting based on time series regression, on three grounds. (i) As these studies did not care …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537330
This paper evaluates the performance of 11 vector autoregressive models in forecasting 15 macroeconomic variables for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686906
In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the yield curve as a predictor of future economic activity. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the Indian market. The paper tries to indicate how the yield curve spread in a government securities market may be used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105586
This paper studies the data revision properties of inflation and its components as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for the Indian economy. We find that data revisions to the WPI inflation and its sub-components are positive and significant, that is, the preliminary estimates of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160173
This paper examines whether the Indian banking system is robust to withstand unexpected shocks from external and domestic macroeconomic factors. Demirguc et al (1998) Kaminsky et al (1999) demonstrate that banking crisis follow financial liberalization. India embarked financial deregulation from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012936159
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012942733
We analyze the dramatic decline in India's inflation over the last two years using an augmented Phillips Curve approach and quantify the role of different factors. Our results suggest that, contrary to popular perception, the direct role of lower oil prices in India's disinflation was relatively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977801
Forecasting of macroeconomic indicators is a challenging task, compounded by complex processes and dynamic nature of … explored as an alternative to traditional forecasting methods. We review the paradigm of machine learning and apply it to … forecast inflation for India. We train various machine learning algorithms and test their forecasting accuracy against standard …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225277
New goods play a central role in many trade and growth models. We use detailed trade and firm-level data from a large developing economy - India - to investigate the relationship between declines in trade costs, the imports of intermediate inputs and domestic firm product scope. We estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010928160