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Economic knock-on effects of Russia's geopolitical risk on advanced economies : a global VAR approach
Blagov, Boris; Dirks, Maximilian W.; Funke, Michael - 2024
Using Russia as a case study and a global VAR model as a methodological tool, we analyze how heightened geopolitical … response functions in response to the skyrocketing Russian geopolitical risk shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed …Unter Verwendung des Fallbeispiels Russland und eines globalen VAR-Modells als methodisches Instrument analysieren wir …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014466941
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Foreign Entanglements : Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries
Bayoumi, Tamim; Swiston, Andrew J. - 2008
VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of smaller countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, while those from the euro area and Japan are small. This paper also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014218609
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Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groupsindustrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794406
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Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan - 2016
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups: industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991111
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Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Chris; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014219067
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Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Chris; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2021
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013325261
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Emerging Asia : decoupling or recoupling
Kim, So-yŏng; Lee, Jong-Wha; Park, Cyn-Young - 2009
In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging Asia and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the "decoupling" of emerging Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging Asian economies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011283453
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National and international business cycle effects of housing crises
Jannsen, Nils - 2009
Housing crises usually go hand in hand with a long lasting recession and a considerable loss in output. We first re-examine the effects of a housing crises on the business cycle based on historical crises. Then we estimate the international spill-over-effects if several huge industrial countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003827190
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Potential Output and Recessions : Are We Fooling Ourselves?
Martin, Robert - 2015
This paper studies the impact of recessions on the longer-run level of output using data on 23 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We find that severe recessions have a sustained and sizable negative impact on the level of output. This sustained decline in output raises questions about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014828
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How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?
Kose, M. Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar S.; Terrones, Marco E. - 2021
This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320078