The author investigates the effects of a marginal tax reform on household welfare in Mexico. He estimates the extent to which Mexican households react to changes in prices, and uses the estimates to simulate changes in social welfare resulting from marginal tax reform. Results indicate that...

A crucial step in policy analysis involves computing consequences of policy actions. The author shows how to implement numerically a general equilibrium model in EViews. Computable general equilibrium models are now commonly used in both industrial and developing countries to assess the impact...

Intra-industry trade as a share of total tradebetween Central and Eastern European nations and the European Union (EU) is among the highest of all the EU's bilateral trade flows. The authors break down data on these trade flows into horizontal and vertical components, and investigate the...

As a less restrictive trade regime is associated with greater responsiveness to economic incentives, econometric evidence that does not allow for the impact of import controls cannot be used reliably to assess the effect of a devaluation on the trade balance. Indeed, devaluation combined with...

The authors investigate the impact on economic growth and development of long-run movements in the external terms of trade, with special reference to the experience of 18 oil-exporting countries between 1973 and 1989. They argue that this sample approximates a controlled experiment for examining...

Some economists have argued that the process of disintegration of the world economy between the two world wars led to income divergence between the countries. This is in keeping with the view that economic integration leads to income convergence. The paper shows that the view that the period...

There are concerns that trade reform and globalization will increase the uncertainty that the average worker, especially the relatively unskilled worker, faces. The increased competitiveness of product markets and greater access to foreign inputs, the argument goes, will lead to more elastic...

Following Lucas's (1987) standard approach, welfare gains from international risk-sharing have been measured as the percentage increase in consumption levels that leaves individuals indifferent between, autarky and risk-sharing. The author proposes to measure welfare gains as the increase in...

Broad comparisons show that growth is linked to imports, but country coomparisons over short periods show the link to be more flexible than fixed. In these stringent times, the big question for African countries is whether they can reduce their historically high import dependence? Or put...

The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough...