The decline in private savings since 1982 is arguably the most important problem in high debt countries. A reversal of the trend is essential if growth is to be restored. Three factors predominate : 1) the extent of intertemporal substitution; 2) attitudes toward risk; and 3) private/public...

The neoclassical theory of project evaluation is based on models in which agents discount the future at a constant exponential rate. But there is strong empirical evidence that people discount the future hyperbolically, applying larger annual discount rates to near-term returns than to returns...

A recent but rapidly growing empirical literature focuses on the relationship between public and private capital. But for the most part, it ignores the heterogeneity of public investment. In many countries, especially in the developing world, public investment includes not only basic...

Governments in developing countries are continuously searching for new and improved tax bases. Existing methods of taxation in these countries frequently fall short of meeting acceptable criteria of efficiency, equity and administrative ease. This paper argues that there is a compelling fiscal...

The authors review the theoretical literature on the determinants of international workers'remittances and then posit an empirical model that accounts for demographic, portfolio, and macroeconomic factors that - together with special incentive policies - determine official remittances. They...

Are natural resources a blessing or a curse? The authors present a model in which natural resources have a positive effect on the level of income and a negative effect on its growth rate. The positive and permanent effect on income implies a welfare gain. There is a growth effect stemming from a...

Using a model of wealth distribution dynamics and occupational choice, the author investigates the distributional consequences of policies and developments associated with the transition from central planning to a market system. The model suggests that even an efficient privatization designed to...

This paper contains a numerical listing of working papers produced by the Policy, Planning, and External Affairs Complex. Each citation contains a brief abstract, and the contact point for the paper.

The sharp drop in private savings in the 1990s in Colombia can be attributed to a decline in private disposable income and, to a lesser extent, to growth in consumption. The permanent decline in private disposable income in Colombia between 1950 and 990 is closely linked to tax increases. This...

The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough...