This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices...

In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...

The coronavirus crisis that started in December 2019 was declared a pandemic by March 2020 and had devastating global consequences. The spread of the virus led to the implementation of different preventive measures prior to the availability of effective vaccines. While many governments...

In this paper, we develop a Twitter-based measure of public sentiment that is useful for measuring the economic policy uncertainty that impacts individual decisions for Turkey. We extract a Twitter-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (TEPU) Index based on a selected set of Twitter user accounts...