With the concept of trend inflation now widely understood as to be important as a measure of the public's perception of … the inflation goal of the central bank and important to the accuracy of longer-term inflation forecasts, this paper uses … Bayesian methods to assess alternative models of trend inflation. Reflecting models common in reduced-form inflation modeling …

recent advances in precision-based algorithms, is developed. Our results for several measures of U.S. inflation indicate that … estimates of trend inflation. …

Correlations of inflation with the growth rate of money increase when data are averaged over longer time periods …. Correlations of inflation with the growth of money also are higher when high-inflation as well as low-inflation countries are … included in the analysis. We show that serial correlation in the underlying inflation rate ties these two observations together …