(Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are "test, test, and test". The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992-2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves. Monetary policy is forward-looking, and as part...

Summarizing Hendry's forty years of work on taming uncertainty is "clear and distinct": Test, test, test. Sure - but test what? Test the maintained assumptions of the disturbances. Test the parameter restrictions of a given model. Test the explanatory power of a model against a rival model. In...

This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies. Toward that end, we estimate standard Phillips curve inflation equations for 11 industrial countries...