Using the Box-Jenkins approach to forecast inflation in the small open economy, we find that ARIMA can partly show dynamics of the country's CPI. Remarkably, the index in the present month suffers much the inertia of the previous month's and corrects substantially compared to that of 3 months ago

ARIMA method is an extrapolation method for forecasting, and like any other such methods, it requires only the historical time series data for the variable under forecasting. ARIMA models are a-theoretical, implying that their construction and use are not based on any underlying theoretical...

This study is a master thesis for a master's program in Economics and Finance in the Department of Economics and Political Sciences at the University of Skövde. As the title indicates, the aim of the thesis is to use ARIMA and VAR models to predict inflation in Ghana. In order to fulfil this...

Inflation is defined as an increase in the general price level of goods and services within a period of time. For any economic agent to formulate policy, it must taken into consideration inflation and the aim of this study is to use ARIMA model to predict inflation in Ghana. In order to fulfill...

The purpose of this paper is to compare the accuracy of the three types of models: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, Holt-Winters models and Neural Network Auto-Regressive (NNAR) models in forcasting the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the countries of...