We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …

We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the … link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for … modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based inflation forecasts not only shadow survey expectations in the pre …

economic agents' inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three different measures. The results suggest that … OECD inflation forecasts perform relatively well as a proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, since under this … approach the European inflation process can be modeled using the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve. However …