The term premium is estimated from an empirically coherent open economy VAR model of the UK economy where the model specifically accounts for the mixed nature of the data and cointegration between some variables. Using this framework the estimated negative term premia for 1980-2007 is decomposed...

The recent surge in consumer prices beginning in 2021 has been attributed by government officials to supply chain disruptions, war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, and corporate greed. Between 2008Q4 and 2021Q1 the consumer price index (CPI) increased 32 percent from about 211 to 280....

This paper examines the effect of changes in Federal Reserve assets and consumer prices during the stewardship of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Since his appointment in February 2018 until July 2022, the average monthly increase in consumer prices was 0.31 percent—more than 2.4 times...

We examine the relationship between interest rates and inflation rates for ten countries during the period 1974- 1995. We find evidence of a unique cointegrating relationship between nominal interest rates of EMS countries, the U.S. and Canada, and the U.S., Germany, and Japan. No similar...

This paper investigates evidence of a Fisher effect in Nigeria by employing quarterly CPI inflation and Nominal interest rates data. For a more robust result we conducted integration and cointegration tests in order to examine time-series properties of the variables. Using Co-integration and...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influencesor more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the lastfew years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. Theempirical part...

In this paper, we examine the forecasting ability of an affine term structure framework that jointly models the markets for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no-arbitrage restrictions across these markets. On the methodological...

Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...

This paper tested for the validity of the Fisher hypothesis in Nigeria during the period 1970 - 2014. The Gregory and Hansen Co-integration test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation, albeit with a structural break in October 2005. In...