Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of six types of policy rules applied for Indonesia, using monthly data spanning January 1980 to December 2008. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses deterministic simulations on a small macro model and evaluates the...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of six types of policy rules applied for Indonesia, using monthly data spanning January 1980 to December 2008. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses deterministic simulations on a small macro model and evaluates the...

Forecasting the inflation path is an important task for central banks in an inflation targeting regime. Therefore, central banks must continuously evaluate the forecasting accuracy of the models used to generate inflation forecasts. This paper evaluates the performance of most of the models that...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

Summarizing Hendry's forty years of work on taming uncertainty is "clear and distinct": Test, test, test. Sure - but test what? Test the maintained assumptions of the disturbances. Test the parameter restrictions of a given model. Test the explanatory power of a model against a rival model. In...

Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters' costs of over- and under-predicting...

The paper analyses the development in inflation in Denmark during the last century. New annual input-output based time-series data for the underlying domestic inflation in Denmark 1903-2002 is constructed by stripping the development in the private consumption deflator for price increases caused...

This paper empirically tests the Kumara Swamy Theorem of Inflationary Gap for Canada over the period 1997-2011 and compares the results with Lazaridis and Livanis (2010) for the Greek and Cypriot economies. While this paper finds favorable results in the direction of the hypothesis, it...

The paper analyses the development in inflation in Denmark during the last century. New annual input-output based time-series data for the underlying domestic inflation in Denmark 1903-2002 is constructed by stripping the development in the private consumption deflator for price increases caused...

This paper empirically tests the Kumara Swamy Theorem of the Inflationary Gap for the 19 countries that are included in G-20 designation over the period 1999-2012. Data were obtained from the World Bank's World Development Indicators database for each country's Money Supply, Gross National...