This paper presents a model that pictures how inflation is determined in a decentralized market process where prices are set in both simultaneous and sequential contracts. Price setting is seen as a coordination game between the price setters of sequential contracts. An important property of the...

We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. A positive slope signals faster monetary policy tightening and predicts negative excess returns at the weekly frequency. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of purchases of long-term sovereign bonds by a central bank in a monetary union when (1) the private sector faces tight financial conditions and (2) the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the policy rate holds. To this end, we calibrate a dynamic general...

This paper presents a model that pictures how inflation is determined in a decentralized market process where prices are set in both simultaneous and sequential contracts. Price setting is seen as a coordination game between the price setters of sequential contracts. An important property of the...

The Bank of Russia decided in June to keep the key interest rate unchanged because of worsening geopolitical uncertainty, capital outflows from developing countries as a consequence of tighter US Fed's monetary policy, plans to raise the VAT rate, as well as prices adjustment to a weaker rouble....

Part of the present inflation is caused by the breakdown of globalization, in particular supply chains, part is caused by the Corona Pandemic, in particular lockdowns, part is caused by the Ukrainian War, part is caused by European sanctions, and part - and not the smallest one - is caused by...

This study discusses recent and current conditions relating to financial stability in the euro area, developing, in particular, on the impact of the current “inflation crisis” on financial stability vulnerabilities. Furthermore, it addresses two related priorities for the Single Resolution...

This paper reconsiders how central banks get involved in the process of determining nominal variables such as market interest rates and inflation rates. It is argued that the traditional story deriving central bank power from its monopoly of issuing base money is flawed. That story - in its...

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future...

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future...