This paper studies regime dependence in the effects of monetary policy shocks for the U.S. using a threshold vector autoregressive model. In a high inflation regime the standard results from the literature obtain. In a low inflation regime output shows no significant response to monetary policy...

This paper examines the usefulness of considering monetary aggregates when assessing monetary policy stance, and contrasts monetary analysis to the current mainstream monetary policy analysis. Monetary developments, unlike interest rate stance measures, are shown to provide quantitative...

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

This paper characterizes the relationship between monetary aggregates, inflation and economic activity in Switzerland since the mid-1970s. Traditional forms of money demand and quantity theory relationships have remained stable over the whole period. Broad money excesses over trend values,...

This paper examines the usefulness of considering monetary aggregates when assessing monetary policy stance, and contrasts monetary analysis to the current mainstream monetary policy analysis. Monetary developments, unlike interest rate stance measures, are shown to provide quantitative...

This paper characterizes the relationship between monetary aggregates, inflation and economic activity in Switzerland since the mid-1970s. Traditional forms of money demand and quantity theory relationships have remained stable over the whole period. Broad money excesses over trend values,...

A number of recent studies have suggested that activist stabilization policy rules responding to inflation and the output gap can attain simultaneously a low and stable rate of inflation as well as a high degree of economic stability. The foremost example of such a strategy is the policy rule...

Based on a more realistic assumption, we modify the Taylor regression. The modified Taylor regression gives an explanation of why the (standard) Taylor regression is spurious (in the econometric sense, i.e. no stable relationship among the variables of interest) and, at the same time, a solution...