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, which should be manifested, possibly with a lag, in both producer and consumer prices. We build a forecasting model based on …
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increasingly featured, along with linear counterparts, in the forecasting literature. In this study, we focus on forecasting South … competing model consistently and significantly beats the LoLiMoT's performance in forecasting South African inflation. …
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relate to the forecasting environment (which cannot be influenced by the forecasters). Among the variables capturing the … forecasting design (which can, by contrast, be influenced by the forecasters), the size of the dataset from which factors are … unbalanced panel, whether restrictions implied by the factor structure are imposed in the forecasting equation or not and whether …
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Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...
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information. Finally, when forecasting the headline CPI, our UIG for China outperforms traditional core measures over different …
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This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving...
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