For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

During the pandemic, there have been unprecedented increases in the cost of shipping goods accompanied by delays and backlogs at the ports. At the same time, import price inflation has reached levels unseen since the early 1980s. This has led many to speculate that the two trends are linked. In...

Economy-wide shocks affect demand, supply, and intermediary sectors simultaneously. We dissect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on international trade by combining information from customs records, smartphone-based human mobility, and container ship port calls. We find that local disruptions...

Using German income distribution in 2009, this paper studies the redistributive and revenue effects of bracket creep under various inflation scenarios. We develop a tax micro-simulation model for the newly available Panel on Household Finance (PHF) data. The simulation yields an inverted...

Inflation can alter the characteristics of tax- and contribution systems in numerous ways. This paper demonstrates how inflation alters the distributive properties of nominally defined tax systems and looks at the impact of the tax revenues and social insurance contribution receipts generated....

This paper studies the redistributive and revenue effects of bracket creep in Germany under various inflation scenarios and evaluates the feasibility to charge a rich tax to fight bracket creep for the income distribution in 2009. Using a tax micro-simulation model developed for the newly...

A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on inflation. However, the response of an import price index to exchange rate movements may be underestimated because some import price changes are missed when constructing the index. We investigate...

This paper analyses how inflation-induced erosions of nominally defined amounts built into relevant tax rules (“bracket creep”) alter distributional and revenue-generating properties of income taxes and social insurance contributions. Using a multi-country tax-benefit model, it provides...

This paper considers what role in-home barcode scanner data could play in collecting household expenditure information as part of national budget surveys. One role is as a source of validation. We make detailed micro-level comparisons of food and drink expenditures in two British datasets: the...

Using German income distribution in 2009, this paper studies the redistributive and revenue effects of bracket creep under various inflation scenarios. We develop a tax micro-simulation model for the newly available Panel on Household Finance (PHF) data. The simulation yields an inverted...